· UK overtakes France in 2013 as 75% tax and euro woes pull France down
· India overtakes UK in 2017 to become largest Commonwealth economy
· Indonesia to enter Top Ten in 2022;
The latest edition of Cebr’s World Economic League Table (WELT) for 2013 reveals some interesting moves as the world’s richest powers jockey for position.
The World Economic League Table tracks the size of different economies across the globe and projects changes over the next 10 years. Last year’s WELT was reported 300,000 times around the globe and quoted by governments on three continents.
The world’s top 3 economies, the US, China and Japan, are forecast to remain in the same relative positions for the next ten years. But by 2022 the Chinese economy, currently 53% of the size of the US economy, is predicted to be 83% of the size of the US economy and catching up fast.
One of the unexpected results of this year’s WELT is that Brazil, which just managed to squeeze past the UK in 2011, has in fact fallen back behind the UK in 2012 as a result of the weakness of its currency, the real. It is not forecast to overtake again until 2014. Over the rest of the period to 2022, Brazil moves up another place in the League Table, overtaking Germany and France but being overtaken in turn by India.
Indians, saddened by their cricket team’s loss to England, may take heart from the table that shows the Indian economy overtaking the UK economy in 2017 and reaching no 4 position in the world by 2022.
Russia rose from 11th position in the league table in 2010 to 9th in 2011. In 2013, it starts overtaking large Western European economies and is predicted to reach the no 7 position by 2022.
Fast-growing Indonesia is one of this year’s shooting stars. Currently (2012) the world’s 16th largest economy, it is forecast to rise six places to enter the world’s top ten in 2022. Other Asian economies also move up the ranking. Thailand goes up 6 places from No 30 in 2012 to No 24 in 2022; Taiwan from 27th to 20th and Korea from 15th to 12th.
European countries fall back. Germany falls from No 4 in 2012 to No 6 in 2022 and the UK from 6th to 8th. But the biggest fallers in Europe are France, which is forecast to fall from 5th to 9th, and Italy from 8th to 13th. By 2022, the Italian economy will be close to falling behind economically powerful emerging markets like Turkey and Mexico.
Comments Cebr Chief Executive Douglas McWilliams: ‘The Indians have lost to us at cricket this winter but they are on track to beat us at economics. By 2017 we predict that the Indian economy will be the largest economy in the Commonwealth, overtaking the UK economy.
‘We are beating some other countries, though. We are poised to overtake France either in 2013 or 2014 as the economic effects of President Hollande’s 75% tax policy and the difficulties of the euro drag France down.
‘We have been neck and neck with Brazil for some time. Last year they overtook us; this year we have overtaken them again. From 2014 onwards, however, their more dynamic economy is likely to pull them decisively beyond us.
‘Cebr’s World Economic League Table (WELT) shows the dramatic changes now taking place in the world’s economic geography with slow growing European economies falling back and Asian economies, even though their growth is slowing, catching up.’